Many Californians find big housing cost savings and easier path to homeownership after moving, UC Berkeley study finds
A UC Berkeley California Policy Lab analysis finds Californians who moved out of state saved an average $672 per month on housing and were 48% more likely to become homeowners within seven years, highlighting clear financial incentives to leave.
Key takeaways
- Average savings: Movers cut monthly housing costs by about $672 — from $2,376 in California to $1,705 after relocating (mortgage/rent, utilities, taxes, insurance).
- Homeownership boost: Leaving California raised the likelihood of becoming a homeowner by 48% (an 11 percentage-point gain over seven years).
- Renters and homeowners: Renters saw roughly 30% lower rents (~$631/month); median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 (48%) lower.
- Destinations: Nearby lower-cost states saw the largest net inflows — notably Nevada, Idaho, Oregon and Arizona — rather than distant high-cost metros.
Main content
Study approach and sources
This analysis from the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley tracks the same households from 2016 through 2025, letting researchers observe housing-cost and ownership outcomes after moves rather than a single snapshot. Reporting and summaries used for this story include Fox Business, Realtor.com and a California Policy Lab presentation.
Housing costs and homeownership: what the data show
The study measures monthly housing costs broadly — including mortgage or rent plus utilities, property taxes and insurance. On average, Californians who left paid $2,376 per month while in California and $1,705 after moving, a $672 monthly savings that many respondents reported.
Renters who relocated experienced roughly a 30% reduction in rent — about $631 a month on average — while homeowners found destination median home prices about $396,000 (48%) lower than comparable California neighborhoods. These differences help explain higher ownership rates in destination neighborhoods: 60% ownership there versus 53% in the California neighborhoods people left.
For further reporting on these figures see Fox Business and the Realtor.com summary.
Longer-term ownership gains
The benefits extend beyond immediate monthly savings. Seven years after leaving California, former residents were 48% more likely to own a home compared with their likelihood while living in California — an increase of 11 percentage points. By comparison, people who moved into California from elsewhere were 27% more likely to own after seven years (a 6-point rise).
Researchers interpret this gap as evidence that out-of-state moves often provide a clearer path to homeownership than moves within California or moves into the state. For more context, view the California Policy Lab presentation.
Where Californians go
Moves are patterned: the largest net outflows from California went to nearby, lower-cost states. From 2016 to 2025, Nevada led with a net inflow of 81 per 10,000 annually from California. Idaho, Oregon and Arizona followed with net inflows of 64, 37 and 36 per 10,000, respectively. States such as Texas, Tennessee and Florida gained some Californians but at lower rates.
Wider cost pressures and trade-offs
Housing sits within broader cost differences. California households often face above-average costs for groceries, gas and utilities, which compound affordability pressures. While incomes in destination states may be somewhat lower, the housing and everyday expense savings frequently outweigh income reductions for many movers.
Policy implications: Increasing housing supply, innovating on construction and improving financing options are commonly suggested strategies to address long-term affordability inside California and reduce out-migration.
Expert note
Evan White, executive director at the California Policy Lab, summarized the effect by noting the average drop in home value exposure of nearly $400,000 and that the likelihood of becoming a homeowner increased by nearly 50% for those who left.
See his remarks in the California Policy Lab presentation and reporting at Fox Business.
Implications for Fresno, California
Economic impact: Fresno already has lower housing costs than many coastal metros, yet the study suggests some Californians target places with even lower costs or easier paths to homeownership. Local sellers may see increased demand from incoming Californians seeking affordability, while renters could face mixed pressures depending on supply.
Political consequences: Migration patterns can shift local tax bases and public budgets. If higher-income residents leave Fresno, tax revenue could fall; if they move in, revenues could rise. City and county leaders may face pressure to accelerate housing approvals or update zoning to retain residents and attract workers.
Social and cultural effects: Moves driven by affordability can change neighborhood composition, school enrollments and service demand. Fresno’s emphasis on community stability and homeownership means leaders must consider policies and messaging that highlight local affordability while addressing the factors that still push residents out-of-state.
Practical advice: For Fresno families weighing a move, compare total monthly housing costs (rent or mortgage plus utilities, taxes and insurance), account for probable income changes, and weigh long-term goals like homeownership. For policymakers, boosting housing supply, streamlining approvals and supporting affordable home-construction programs could help counter outflows.
Reporting notes and sources
This article is based on the California Policy Lab analysis and national reporting that summarized the study’s findings. Key summaries and reporting include Fox Business, Realtor.com and the California Policy Lab presentation. All original findings, figures and links are preserved from those sources.
